Karl Popper, Solon and Uncertainty

From Karl Popper, a theory is always waiting to be proven false, if not yet proven false. It is only provisionally accepted.

In applying this to finance, investing: There is really no guarantee a stock will continue to do well.. Finance specialists will always have a model or 'theory' to 'predict' the market but they will always be subject to being proven wrong later.

It thus seems the odds are always stacked against theories because no matter how many times or instances it is proven right, it takes only one 'wrong' instance to take the whole theory down.

This is somehow connected to Solon's observation that we are all servants to uncertainty and that nothing is really permanent, especially one's fortunes.

Nothing is absolute and except change and uncertainty.

We can predict or forecast with confidence on the short term but that still is subject to some degree of uncertainty.



From Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb